Monday, September 26, 2005

Chances are ... YOU are a Loser!

In this great state of Illinois where minority rules, poker is outlawed as “gambling”, and lotto is a way of life … There is something inherently wrong with that. This blog contains basic mathematic reasoning so you need at least a GED to follow along. Odds are, you’re a loser and don’t know it yet.

I want to introduce you to a couple of different terms to make things eaiser:
Short Term: A short amount of time or trials when gambling.
Long Term: The course of years and thousand of gambling trials.
House Advantage: The edge any gambling institution holds over a player.
Skill Game: Blackjack, Sports Betting, Poker
Luck Game: Anything not a skill game

Let’s first look at the easiest of all luck games – Slots.
Push a button or pull a lever. A drunken monkey on acid can play slots. The truth is that anyone can win in the short term but most do not. Play slots long enough and you will lose. Most machines pay out at a rate of 97%. This is very confusing to most people. A pay out rate is how much a machine is expected to return to you over the course of THOUSANDS (see Long Term) of trials. There will be fluctuations in the short term, but over the course of years and thousands of trials you will lose $3 for every $100 you put in the machine. $100 – $3 = 97% pay out. For those of you already asleep, I’ll type softer.

38 numbers on the board with the payoff of 35-1 on any number you hit. This gives the house an advantage of 5.26% meaning you are better off playing the slots than roullette. James Bond be damned!

Play the pass line for a house advantage or 1.41%. This is as low of a house advantage you will find in a casino for a game that is not a skill game. Sure betting the pass line isn't anywhere near as fun as hitting a big 35-1 roullette number, but it is less risky and will allow you to play much longer without going broke.

OK, so now let's see what the great state of Illinois offers us in it's "non-gambling" lottery. Keep in mind, the worst house edge the casino has in the above games is 5.26% ...

Pick 3 and Pick 4
Here's an "easy" game. Simply pick 3 numbers or 4 numbers and win a big-time payday. It only costs as little as 50 cents to play and it's got to be a good deal otherwise the state wouldn't sponsor it right? Try on a 40-42.6% house advantage PLUS you get taxed on winnings. Thanks you Illinois for saving me from the casinos ... so you can turn around and RAPE ME!

I sat down one day and did the math for winning the lotto. I'll show part of my work so you can understand exactly what conclusion I came to. Over 100 million possible outcomes of the numbers, so buying - for instance - 170 tickets would give you roughly a million-to-one shot at winning. Conclusion: you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning while having a 3-way with the Olson twins. Thank you Illinois!

Also, Illinois does not condone "gambling" but they do allow raffles which are often even better ways to screw people. Here is my favorite ...

50/50 Drawings
What is amazing to me to this day is the house advantage is actually spelled out in THE FUCKING NAME OF THE DRAWING. There is a 50% house advantage! Aside from Lotto, this is the worst house advantage of any of the games listed above. Instead of 50/50 you might as well wipe your ass with a dollar bill and flush it down the drain.

So in saving us from ourselves, the state of Illinois has actually helped themselves to our wallets while making sure we don't do anything has illicit as gambling - where maybe our bankrolls would have a chance. It amazes me the billions of dollars funded to the state under the guise of "Lottery" while we are subjected to countless messages from the Illinois Gambling council about problem gambling.

The "problem" is the Illinois Gambling council and any moron who plays lotto as a way of life. For both, I offer you can all munch on my white ass.

Don't play lotto but chances are - even if you don't - you're still a loser ...


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